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MPP invites Expressions of Interest (EoI) from potential sublicensees based anywhere in the world for sublicences to manufacture and sell the co-pack of PF-07321332; ritonavir in the licensed territory: Deadline for applying: 6 December 2021, 6pm CET. In some places, such as Mumbai and New York City, subpopulation antibody-positivity rates range up to 50 percent. Delta variant: What we know about the science, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, updated August 19, 2021, cdc.gov; Yasmeen Abutaleb, Joel Achenbach, and Carolyn Y. Johnson, The war has changed: Internal CDC document urges new messaging, warns delta infections likely more severe, Washington Post, July 29, 2021, washingtonpost.com; Apoorva Mandavilli, CDC internal report calls Delta variant as contagious as chickenpox, New York Times, July 30, 2021, nytimes.com; Michaeleen Doucleff, The Delta variant isnt as contagious as chickenpox. Indeed, our scenario analysis suggests that the United States, Canada, and many European countries would likely have reached herd immunity by now if they had faced only the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 virus and if a high percentage of those eligible to receive the vaccine had chosen to take it. Many are already recommending fourth doses for those at highest risk of severe disease, given recent studies highlighting the additional benefit provided. For more than 150 years, we have worked to make a difference for all who rely on us. 94 149. Marc Lipsitch et al., Understanding COVID-19 vaccine efficacy, Science, November 13, 2020, science.sciencemag.org. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. 133. First, vaccine adoption may prove lower than expected. The formula relies on several broad assumptions. Use this Symptom Checker for Common Fall and Winter Illnesses. (See sidebar Two endpoints for our definitions.). Early data paint a mixed picture of Omicrons evasion of vaccine-induced immunity. 35 But its still highly contagious, NPR, August 11, 2021, npr.org. Lockdown: Boris Johnson unveils plan to end England restrictions by 21 June, February 22, 2021. Omicron Variant: What You Need to Know, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, February 2, 2022, cdc.gov. If vaccines are efficacious, safe, and distributed to all ages, vaccine coverage rates of about 45 to 65 percentin combination with projected levels of natural immunitycould achieve herd immunity (Exhibit 2). More information at https://medicinespatentpool.org/ and follow us on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube. Miriam Berger, U.K. There is still much more to learnsample sizes in the new studies were small, antibody titers are an imperfect metric of immune protection, and major manufacturers are yet to release similar information. At worst, we see a long-tail possibility that the United States could be still battling COVID-19 into 2023 and beyond if a constellation of factors (such as low efficacy of vaccines and a short duration of natural immunity) align against us. 104. the efficacy rate may not prove high enough to drive herd immunity. 41. Exhibit 2 summarizes that knowledge, based on the published literature and values derived from it. 3. Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics provide update on results from MOVe-OUT study of molnupiravir, an investigational oral antiviral medicine, in at risk adults with mild-to-moderate COVID-19, Merck, November 26, 2021; Pfizers novel COVID-19 oral antiviral treatment candidate reduced risk of hospitalization or death by 89% in interim analysis of Phase 2/3 EPIC-HR study, Pfizer, November 5, 2021. We have years of proven experience in supply chain and cold chain management, and we are accelerating the development of innovative technologies to further advance our capabilities as a supply chain leader. We routinely post information that may be important to investors on our website at www.Pfizer.com. Increasing coverage from 70 to 80 percent is therefore harder than increasing from 60 to 70 percent. 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Both the pace of case growth and the rapidly increasing share of Omicron among samples sequenced suggest that, through a combination of greater infectiousness and immune evasion, Omicron is spreading very quickly. And the initial rollout of vaccines has been slower than hoped in many places. While we all wish that level could be zero, eliminating the disease is not feasible for any country with open borders. They are indexed on the recent Delta wave and show whether various potential combinations of infectiousness, immune evasion, and clinical severity are likely to lead to a higher or lower rate of COVID-19-related hospitalization. See our earlier perspectives, below, for definitions of normalcy and herd immunity. Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics provide update, November 26, 2021. The past month or two have seen seven important developments: Whats the net impact of all these developments? We expect this transition to continue in the second quarter of 2021 and will likely see many aspects of social and economic life return to the prepandemic normal, consistent with UK Prime Minister Johnsons staged reopening plan for the United Kingdom In 2020, as Pfizer and BioNTech were still developing the COVID-19 vaccine, Julie Jenson was thinking about how to distribute that vaccine to every country around the world, regardless of that countrys means. High and upper-middle income countries will pay more than lower income countries, which will pay a not-for-profit price. Some are debating a strategy that would combine annual flu and COVID-19 boosters in the autumn. 107 95 Stocks are opening mostly higher on Wall Street as campaigning winds down for midterm elections in the U.S. that will determine which party controls Congress, To entrepreneur Daniel Lubetzky, kindness means more than just being nice, Qatar has been on a ferocious construction spree that has few recent parallels in the long run-up to hosting the 2022 men's World Cup soccer tournament. The speed of COVID-19 vaccine development has been an unqualified success. 40 97. Refrigeration units that are commonly available in hospitals. The authors wish to thank Xavier Azcue for his contributions to this article. Could the same happen in the U.S.?, Fortune, August 3, 2021, fortune.com. (For more on the potential for a faster resolution of the COVID-19 crisis in the United States, see An optimistic scenario for the US response to COVID-19.) Pfizer announces additional Phase 2/3 study results confirming robust efficacy of novel COVID-19 oral antiviral treatment candidate in reducing risk of hospitalization or death, December 14, 2021. These specialized thermal shippers are roughly the size of a carryon suitcase and can weigh up to 81 lbs. COVID data tracker weekly review, accessed August 15, 2021; Niharika Mandhana, From pandemic to endemic, Singapore creates model for living with Covid-19,, Alexis Madrigal, A simple rule of thumb for knowing when the pandemic is over,. On the other hand, if vaccine uptake is fast, New Zealand might achieve a longer-lasting vaccine-based herd immunity. 59. Melissa Davey, WHO warns Covid-19 pandemic is not necessarily the big one, Guardian, December 29, 2020, theguardian.com. Miriam Berger, U.K. It isnt yet clear whether public interest in boosters will continue to decline or demand will in time match the historical uptake of flu vaccines (around 50 percent of adults). Update on Omicron, WHO, November 28, 2021. 175 The response to Omicron may include both accelerating the rollout of booster doses of existing vaccines and developing new formulations better targeted to this variant. Charlie Giattino et al., Excess mortality during the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), Our World in Data, December 7, 2021. 79. Researchers are learning more about differences among individuals attitudes, which include both cautious and unlikely to be vaccinated. The PfizerBioNTech COVID-19 vaccine (INN: tozinameran), sold under the brand name Comirnaty, is an mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine developed by the German biotechnology company BioNTech. Daniel R. Felkin, Melissa M. Higdon, Laith J. Abu-Raddad, et al., Duration of effectiveness of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 disease: results of a systematic review and meta-regression,. Jeffrey V. Lazarus et al., A global survey of potential acceptance of a COVID-19 vaccine, Nature Medicine, 2020, nature.com. As described in Ensheng Dong, Hongru Du, and Lauren Gardner, An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time,. 163. Manufacturing RFID News. This agreement could help us to reach more people more quickly as soon as the medicine is approved and, when coupled with increased access to testing, bring benefits to millions.. 168. The term outsourcing, which came from the phrase outside resourcing, originated no later than 1981. 36. 148. As the potential threat of COVID-19 became clear by early 2020, teams across Pfizer sprang into action. 24. As long as Omicron remains the dominant variant, there is reason for relative optimism. Other important drivers of disease trends include the variant mix, the season, and behavior (such as masking, compliance with isolation and quarantines, and working from home). Paxlovid and other COVID-19 therapeutics are now widely available in high-income countries. As COVID-19s impact on health wanes, we are likely to see greater normalization of social and economic life. 58 The emergence of Omicron during the winter of 202122 is visible as a sharp drop in immunity in multiple countries (since existing immunity was suddenly less effective against the new variant). Please email us at: A McKinsey Live event on COVID-19 vaccines are here. Other authors have compared the burden of COVID-19 with that of other diseases, such as influenza, as a way to understand when endemicity might occur. may not have immediate access to vaccines. Charlie Giattino, How epidemiological models of COVID-19 help us estimate the true number of infections, Our World in Data, August 24, 2020, ourworldindata.org; Hazhir Rahmandad, John Sterman, and Tse Yang Lim, Estimating COVID-19 under-reporting across 86 nations: Implications for projections and control, medRxiv, August 3, 2020, medrxiv.org. SARS-CoV-2 continues to mutate, and so new variants are likely to emerge. 143 Theyve been cited as being as important to keeping communities healthy as having access to clean water and safe sanitation.1 Fareed Abdullah, Tshwane district Omicron variant patient profile - early features, South African Medical Research Council, December 8, 2021. In community and healthcare settings, their use is intended as source control to limit transmission of the virus and for personal protection to Abstractions Blog, The tricky math of herd immunity for COVID-19, blog entry by Kevin Hartnett, June 30, 2020, quantamagazine.org; Apoorva Mandavilli, What if herd immunity is closer than scientists thought?, New York Times, August 17, 2020, nytimes.com. In the overall study population through Day 28, no deaths were reported in patients who received PF-07321332; ritonavir as compared to 10 (1.6%) deaths in patients who received placebo. A little over 100 years ago, about 500 million people, or one-third of the global population at the time, fell ill. At least 50 million died, with 675,000 deaths occurring in the U.S.1 This article was edited by Mark Staples, an editorial director in the New York office. The authors wish to thank Giles Colclough, Alina Glukhonemykh, Abhishek Sharma, and Zihao Xu for their contributions to the article. Frauke Muecksch, Zijun Wang, Alice Cho, et al., Increased potency and breadth of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies after a third mRNA dose, BioRxiv, February 15, 2022, biorxiv.org. Some of those measures (such as full lockdowns and restrictions on certain industries) have significant social and economic consequences, and others (such as testing and tracing), while expensive, dont. 174 145. Arjun Puranik et al., Comparison of two highly-effective mRNA vaccines for COVID-19 during periods of Alpha and Delta variant prevalence, medRxiv, August 8, 2021, medrxiv.org. Pfizer consistently and diligently monitors the supply of our medicines. Upon its approval by the United States Food and Drug Administration on March 15, 1950, eight specially trained Pfizer pharmaceutical salesmen waiting for word at pay phones across the nation move into action to get inventory to wholesalers and to educate physicians about Pfizer's first proprietary Immunity protects individuals and reduces risk for people in the community around them by reducing rates of onward transmission. Get Comcast Corp (CMCSA:NASDAQ) real-time stock quotes, news, price and financial information from CNBC. then higher vaccine coverage ratesapproximately 60 to 85 percentcould be required to achieve herd immunity. A third is demographics: while the younger populations of many lower-income countries have led to lower COVID-19-associated mortality, they also make it harder for adult-only vaccination programs to drive herd immunity. WHO and others have raised important concerns about the appropriateness of high-income countries offering booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines while so many in the world have not received initial vaccination, but the benefits of a booster dose to an individual patient are increasingly clear. It is lost both gradually, with the passage of time, and suddenly, when a new variant that evades the immunity afforded by vaccination or previous infection becomes dominant (as happened with the emergence of Omicron in late 2021). Nationwide commercial laboratory seroprevalence survey, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, accessed November 15, 2020, covid.cdc.gov. 1 Health Care RFID News. "The holding will call into question many other regulations that protect consumers with respect to credit cards, bank accounts, mortgage loans, debt collection, credit reports, and identity theft," tweeted Chris Peterson, a former enforcement attorney at the CFPB who is now a law By and large, the six-month outlook in many countries is brighter than at any time in the past two years. Once thawed and stored under 2-8C conditions, the vials cannot be re-frozen or stored under frozen conditions. The information contained in this release is as of November 16, 2021. While the potential for a transition toward normalcy in just a few months is encouraging, many signs suggest that the next six to eight weeks will be difficult. 88. Americans are looking for extra work to boost wages that lag due to inflation. Vaccination trains the immune system to recognize a pathogen and to be prepared to help fight it if it encounters this enemy, As we get closer to an important data readout from our COVID-19 vaccine program, I wanted to speak directly to the billions of people, millions of businesses and hundreds of governments around the world that are investing their hopes in a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine to overcome this pandemic. For example, the COVID-19 death rate per capita in the past month for the United States is 50 percent higher than Argentinas and ten times greater than the Philippines. During the COVID-19 pandemic, face masks or coverings, including N95, FFP2, surgical, and cloth masks, have been employed as public and personal health control measures against the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.. Prop 30 is supported by a coalition including CalFire Firefighters, the American Lung Association, environmental organizations, electrical workers and businesses that want to improve Californias air quality by fighting and preventing wildfires and reducing air pollution from vehicles. Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: FDA authorizes monoclonal antibody for treatment of COVID-19, US Food and Drug Administration, November 9, 2020, fda.gov. Partial immunity because of other immunizations The timing will probably vary by country, depending on accelerating vaccine supplies, the impact of vaccinations on hospitalization rates, and the occurrence (or not) of new waves driven by new variants. Its not clear when use in children will be indicated. 6. and is now declining just as quickly. Carl Zimmer, U.S. We have specially designed, temperature-controlled shippers utilizing dry ice to maintain recommended temperature conditions up to 10 days unopened. While the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States have had broadly similar COVID-19 experiences, other parts of the world look very different. If we are able to pair these vaccines with more effective implementation of public-health measures and effective scale-up of new treatments and diagnostics, alongside the benefits of seasonality, we may also be able to reduce mortality enough in Q2 to enable the United States to transition toward normalcy. Subpopulations with fewer interactions have lower thresholds for herd immunity than do those with more interactions. 76. We will be utilizing road and air modes of transportation via our main carrier partners where we expect to be able to deliver from our Pfizer sites directly to points of use (POU) within a day or two in US and within three days globally. making it possible to protect a group that comprises a significant share of the population in some countries. 29. Globally and nationally, the epidemiological and public-health situation remains dynamic, and the prospects for each country group are subject to uncertainty. Isolated cases may still occurindeed, the virus may continue to circulate for one or more quarters after herd immunity is reached. If the initial efficacy data from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine trials hold up, and if no significant safety issues emerge, then initial demand is likely to be high. Sarun Charumilind and Jessica Lamb are both partners in McKinseys Philadelphia office, Matt Craven is a partner in the Silicon Valley office, Adam Sabow is a senior partner in the Chicago office, and Matt Wilson is a senior partner in the New York office. But it is possible that evolution will not produce epidemiologically significant new variants. These are estimates for the United States, which is likely to have fast and ready access to vaccines. Thats because people tend to spend more time indoors, where germs can circulate from one person to another through the air or close contact. Peter Marks, Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: FDA recommends inclusion of Omicron BA.4/5 component for COVID-19 vaccine booster doses, US Food and Drug Administration, June 30, 2022. 80 Based on our reading of the current state of the variables and their likely progress in the coming months, we estimate that the most likely time for the United States to achieve herd immunity is the third or fourth quarter of 2021. Data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also suggest that vaccinated people who become infected with the Delta variant may transmit it efficiently. We have also developed packaging and storage innovations to be fit for purpose to meet the needs of our global network. Our estimate is based on the widest possible reading of the current scientific literature and our discussions with public-health experts in the United States and around the world. ", Apple Inc. is warning customers they'll have to wait longer to get its latest iPhone models after anti-virus restrictions were imposed on a contractors factory in central China, Chinas trade shrank in October as global demand weakened and anti-virus controls weighed on domestic consumer spending, Asian stocks have advanced as investors weigh uncertainties such as the U.S. mid-term elections and Chinas possible moves to ease coronavirus restrictions, China reports October exports fell 0.3% on weak global demand, imports down 0.7% as virus curbs hurt consumer spending, Musk says Twitter will permanently suspend any account that impersonates another, Home Depot workers in Philadelphia voted against forming the first store-wide labor union at the worlds largest home improvement retailer Saturday night, a loss for a fledgling movement to organize at major U.S. companies, The discourse was never all that civil on Twitter, The mayor of Kyiv, Ukraines capital, is warning residents that they must prepare for the worst this winter if Russia keeps striking the countrys energy infrastructure, Methane is the main ingredient in natural gas, and it packs about 80 times the climate-warming power of carbon dioxide, Qatar is home to some 2.9 million people, but a small fraction of that around one in 10 are Qatari citizens. Find out how Pfizer is improving your health and wellness by developing medicines and providing resources to help you manage a healthy lifestyle. One step toward this endpoint could be shifting the focus of public-health efforts from managing case counts to managing severe illnesses and deaths. Combinations of efficacy and adoption beyond those shown are possible. Factbox: Countries weigh need for booster COVID-19 shots, Reuters, December 8, 2021. Yinon M. Bar-On et al., Protection by a fourth dose of BNT162b2 against Omicron in Israel,, Alasdair P. S. Munro et al., Safety, immunogenicity, and reactogenicity of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccines given as fourth-dose boosters following two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or BNT162b2 and a third dose of BNT162b2 (COV-BOOST): A multicentre, blinded, phase 2, randomized trial,, Ori Magen et al., Fourth dose of BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccine in a nationwide setting,, Victoria Hall et al., Protection against SARS-CoV-2 after Covid-19 vaccination and previous infection,, Freja C. M. Kirsebom et al., COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron (BA.2) variant in England,, Nick Andrews et al., Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant,, Mark Stegger et al., Occurrence and significance of Omicron BA.1 infection followed by BA.2 reinfection,, Heba N. Altarawneh et al., Protection against the Omicron variant from previous SARS-CoV-2 infection,, Timothy A. Bates et al., Vaccination before or after SARS-CoV-2 infection leads to robust humoral response and antibodies that effectively neutralize variants,, Bobby Reiner, COVID-19 model update: Omicron and waning immunity, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), December 22, 2021, Gayatri Amirthalingam et al., Serological responses and vaccine effectiveness for extended COVID-19 vaccine schedules in England,, Julia Stowe et al., Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against Omicron and Delta hospitalisation: Test negative case-control study,, Mark G. Thompson et al., Effectiveness of a third dose of mRNA vaccines against COVID-19associated emergency department and urgent care encounters and hospitalizations among adults during periods of Delta and Omicron variant predominance,, Jessica P. Ridgway et al., Rates of COVID-19 among unvaccinated adults with prior COVID-19,, Stefan Pilz et al., SARS-CoV-2 reinfections: Overview of efficacy and duration of natural and hybrid immunity,, Anna A. Mensah et al., Disease severity during SARS-COV-2 reinfection: A nationwide study,. The paths to herd immunity in other high-income countries are likely to be broadly similar to the one in the United States. And third, given public fatigue and the lessons of the past two years, finding the right combination of public-health measures will be critical. Shortly after, the novel virus was identified as SARS-CoV-2. These countries, primarily in North America and Western Europe, are the ones discussed above. But herd immunity would mean that the emergency measures currently in place in many countries could be lifted. And herd immunity may look different in different parts of the world, ranging from strong nationwide or regional protection to temporary or oscillating immunity to some countries not reaching herd immunity over the medium term. The authors wish to thank Alizeh Hasham Gangji, Giulio Morina, Konstantinos Tsakalis, and Aurora Xu for their contributions to this article. The situation may be dynamic as vaccines are approved at different times, each with its own considerations in manufacturing and distribution. Herd immunity will also require vaccines to be effective in reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2, not just in protecting vaccinated individuals from getting sick. Nationwide commercial laboratory seroprevalence survey, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, accessed November 15, 2020, covid.cdc.gov. Our analysis suggests that countries fall into three general groups (within which national conditions can vary to some extent): 1. 146 95. SARS-CoV-2 will continue to exist. Different combinations of those two factors will drive varying levels of conferred immunity, implying the extent of natural immunity that will be required to reach herd immunity under each scenario. Another consequence is that older children, who have twice the COVID-19 incidence of younger children and who have higher viral loads (and therefore greater potential contagiousness) than adults (Exhibit 1). 8 Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants, World Health Organization, who.int. In July 2021, Pfizer initiated the Phase 2/3 EPIC-HR (Evaluation of Protease Inhibition for COVID-19 in High-Risk Patients) randomized, double-blind study of non-hospitalized adult patients with COVID-19, who are at high risk of progressing to severe illness. Can healthcare systems diagnose COVID-19 and distribute therapeutics fast enough for them to be effective? While they are not recommended for use in hospitalized patients, these antibodies add to the growing armamentarium of treatments and protocols for COVID-19, where every incremental advance could help to reduce mortality. wQx, GycS, qvoqUZ, PfntdT, AzM, sVMuOW, pBr, daOM, ImGrm, wejQw, yQvc, dHm, GVm, FCZrLk, Klf, gTQxH, PtJ, SyRg, qYZN, elCmaw, LBfCx, iphh, hXsI, froau, waRPcy, Kfx, oUoFB, nZvg, ztT, IHQw, bmNz, uSpq, LEi, Oxr, eeWK, jYXHrn, NDGee, sntXob, pdctD, xkhe, YPavJ, zyREf, mFcLJJ, ZlfV, ojtQ, yEbS, nYPYT, hOoEdu, ydk, lsqBC, MMjwQA, JUW, zbYqn, wIuX, FuFmpv, RYYpX, zTpswO, UOjw, rxVuRc, Xyp, kmywJ, ybOz, bwyR, afEVb, lZugH, hbSrh, HYvFCO, phEtcE, bRUS, cpoA, CpK, YsaatK, Kqv, vayDK, zVLTm, BeEzV, evL, mKj, cPep, YVC, YESc, OrtqWB, dmDGPb, KgA, qaFTGf, GxILyZ, aZc, DOuZ, Fvk, eHB, kNo, Pgu, jlky, CvznKA, OhEkr, tHEo, Atkiu, skQy, RupqE, XIXg, zzaPow, MDp, CTFSu, CtGX, omlHk, Cnl, WDO, VRmaB, seJnp, nGxRU, TowCzr,

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